Political Violence, Division, and the New American Exodus: Why Portugal Is Rising as a Safe Haven

A Dangerous New Normal in U.S. Politics

America is entering a turbulent chapter. What once might have been unthinkable — the public assassination or attempted assassination of high-profile political figures — is now becoming a grim reality.

• In September 2025, Charlie Kirk, conservative activist and founder of Turning Point USA, was assassinated while speaking at Utah Valley University. A sniper shot him while he was on stage.

• In July 2024, Donald Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt when a bullet grazed his ear during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

These are not isolated incidents. They fit into a broader pattern of political violence:

• By mid-2025, the U.S. had recorded about 150 politically motivated attacks in the first half of the year — nearly double the figure from the same period the year before (Reuters).

• A CSIS study found that from 2016 to 2025, attacks and plots against public officials motivated by extremist beliefs more than tripled compared to the prior 25 years combined.

• In 2022 alone, there were 245 documented incidents of political violence resulting in 97 fatalities.

For everyday Americans, the personal risk of violence may still be low — but the rising frequency, visibility, and emotional toll create a climate of instability that feels very different from even a decade ago.

Americans Thinking About Leaving

Alongside growing instability, more Americans are wondering whether life might be better abroad.

• A 2025 survey by PollFish found that 26% of Americans are considering relocating overseas because of political dissatisfaction.

• A LendingTree survey showed that 15% of Americans have considered leaving specifically because of politics, with the figure rising to 24% among Gen Z.

While only about 1% have firm plans, these numbers reveal a significant undercurrent of dissatisfaction.

Portugal: A Top Destination for Resettlement

Portugal has emerged as one of the most sought-after destinations for Americans seeking stability, affordability, and safety.

• In 2024 alone, about 10,000 Americans bought property in Portugal — making up between 48%–58% of all foreign buyers in some quarters.

• In Q1 2025, Americans represented 58% of international real estate purchases.

• Luxury home demand reflects the same trend: Americans accounted for 13.1% of foreign buyers in Portugal’s premium property market in early 2025.

• Compared to pre-pandemic levels, the number of Americans relocating to Portugal has surged by 195%.

The drivers are clear: relative political stability, lower living costs (outside tourist zones), good healthcare, safety, and a desirable climate.

If Division Continues: Projected Capital Flight

The U.S. faces a risk far larger than just individual relocations: capital flight — the movement of wealth and investment out of the country. If instability worsens, the scale could be massive.

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Estimated Annual Capital Flight	Cumulative Over 5 Years
Mild escalation	Occasional violent incidents, moderate instability.	US$50-100B/year	US$250-500B
Moderate escalation	Frequent violence, electoral instability, weaker investor confidence.	US$150-300B/year	US$750B-1.5T
Severe escalation	Widespread violence, institutional breakdown, mass relocation of firms and households.	US$500B+/year	US$2.5T+

To put this in perspective: even a moderate outflow of US$200–300B/year represents 0.7–1.2% of U.S. GDP. Over time, that can weaken domestic investment, strain tax revenues, and slow growth.

Bad for Business: How Violence Hurts the Economy

Political instability and violence aren’t just social issues — they are bottom-line problems for businesses.

• A Willis Towers Watson survey found that 68% of companies had already suffered a political risk loss, with over half citing political violence as the cause.

• An Allianz Commercial report (2025) noted that civil unrest is now ranked the top risk for more than half of businesses worldwide.

• Academic research shows that after mass shootings, local businesses see sharp declines in foot traffic and sales, sometimes lasting months.

In the U.S., the potential costs stack up:

• Lost revenues: sectors like retail, hospitality, tourism, and real estate are highly vulnerable. A 10-20% tourism decline in unstable regions could mean tens of billions in losses annually.

• Rising operating costs: insurance premiums, security expenses, and legal compliance could add 1–2% of revenues for many firms — equating to tens of billions more per year.

• Investment deterrence: if foreign direct investment inflows fall by even 15–20%, that’s another US$100B+ annually in lost capital.

• Weaker growth: if political instability shaves just 1% off annual GDP growth, that’s US$250B/year in lost output, compounding to US$1.2–1.4T over 5 years.

Altogether, under a moderate escalation scenario, the combined cost of capital flight, lost business, weaker growth, and public finance stress could easily reach into the multi-trillion-dollar range over the next decade.

Conclusion

The assassination of Charlie Kirk and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump highlight a worrying new phase of political violence in the U.S. Combined with deepening polarization, these trends are pushing more Americans to consider a future abroad — and Portugal has risen to the top of that list.

But the implications go beyond personal choices. If division and violence continue, the U.S. could face hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars in capital flight, weakened business confidence, and slower growth. For businesses and investors, political risk is no longer an abstract concept — it is a direct, measurable cost.

Portugal, by contrast, offers stability and opportunity — making it one of the key beneficiaries of America’s turbulent politics.